Author Topic: Does anyone bet on basketball here?  (Read 1643 times)

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fast does lie

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Does anyone bet on basketball here?
« on: March 07, 2017, 07:51:39 am »
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Just out of curiosity.... sometimes there are good lines, sometimes the results are insane in bball.  For example, first game of the season the Spurs go to Oracle and beat GSW by 29 points lol.  who would have thought.....
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LBSS

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Re: Does anyone bet on basketball here?
« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2017, 09:20:33 am »
+1
i've done it a little, on college ball, and actually netted out positively (albeit for small amounts). but i've also done it enough to know that my success is luck and i'd be stupid to think otherwise.
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vag

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Re: Does anyone bet on basketball here?
« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2017, 10:46:00 am »
+1
It is ALWAYS luck. It is 1st year of college probability theory.
Because the odds are never 'fair' , the total of the odds translated to % win probability is always above 100%.
So , the perfect example to illustrate this , is the absolutely even derby, a game that each team has 50% chances to win. The odds from the books will be something like 55% for each, summing 110%. Both teams are treated as favorites, giving less than 1:2 gains ( which would be the fair ). So it is a matter of luck if you do find the winner. But if you repeat the bet forever, you will be losing your money with a 5% ratio.
To make it even more simple, it is about the same as playing red/black on roulette. The book reserves 0 for him. By luck you may win more times than you lose for a given amount of plays, but eventually you will be losing your money with 1/37 ratio , because 1 of the 37 numbers ( zero ) is neither black or red.

PS: If you believe the book is wrong at estimating a percentage, then yes you have a case of betting and winning because of playing 'wise'.  Do you really believe you can estimate the odds better than him?
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fast does lie

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Re: Does anyone bet on basketball here?
« Reply #3 on: March 07, 2017, 01:11:57 pm »
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It is ALWAYS luck. It is 1st year of college probability theory.
Because the odds are never 'fair' , the total of the odds translated to % win probability is always above 100%.
So , the perfect example to illustrate this , is the absolutely even derby, a game that each team has 50% chances to win. The odds from the books will be something like 55% for each, summing 110%. Both teams are treated as favorites, giving less than 1:2 gains ( which would be the fair ). So it is a matter of luck if you do find the winner. But if you repeat the bet forever, you will be losing your money with a 5% ratio.
To make it even more simple, it is about the same as playing red/black on roulette. The book reserves 0 for him. By luck you may win more times than you lose for a given amount of plays, but eventually you will be losing your money with 1/37 ratio , because 1 of the 37 numbers ( zero ) is neither black or red.

PS: If you believe the book is wrong at estimating a percentage, then yes you have a case of betting and winning because of playing 'wise'.  Do you really believe you can estimate the odds better than him?

This is actually not true. What you are saying is in theory if one were to just randomly pick something everytime.

The books goal is to get the exact same amount of bets on both sides of the line.  So for example its Bulls vs Lakers and the spread is Bulls -6..... The book wants exactly 1000 people taking Bulls -6 and 1000 people taking Lakers +6.

That is their goal and they take the 5-10% vig.  But with certain games there is almost always an edge you can find if you're an expert. You are actually profiting off of other bettors mistakes in essence. That is why there are a lot of pro handicappers out there. Its not an easy job and takes a lot of work and expertise, but it is definitely possible.
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vag

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Re: Does anyone bet on basketball here?
« Reply #4 on: March 07, 2017, 02:09:23 pm »
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Agreed.
However most often the handicap covers both options, so there is no edge.
Even if you find the edge ( which if you do , you gotta bet it ) , this is still a bet. So say a book gives 1/3 for a game that you are absolutely sure is 1/2. You must bet it, it is an edge and a HUGE one. Still , the true odds are 50-50 , so you might... lose! However on the long term you will be winning if you keep it that way.
What is the catch? They know. They never let the edge on the favorite, it is on the outsider. So you find the edge at a game that pays 1/20 while it is actually a 1/10. It is a HUGE opportunity, you must bet it if you are an edge chaser. It is a great bet, but the odds are still 1/10. You might lose 18 consecutive times at that bet, but when you win it you will get 20 back so you are a winner. The question is , can you afford to lose 18 times, or even 8 times?
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fast does lie

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Re: Does anyone bet on basketball here?
« Reply #5 on: March 07, 2017, 11:07:47 pm »
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Agreed.
However most often the handicap covers both options, so there is no edge.
Even if you find the edge ( which if you do , you gotta bet it ) , this is still a bet. So say a book gives 1/3 for a game that you are absolutely sure is 1/2. You must bet it, it is an edge and a HUGE one. Still , the true odds are 50-50 , so you might... lose! However on the long term you will be winning if you keep it that way.
What is the catch? They know. They never let the edge on the favorite, it is on the outsider. So you find the edge at a game that pays 1/20 while it is actually a 1/10. It is a HUGE opportunity, you must bet it if you are an edge chaser. It is a great bet, but the odds are still 1/10. You might lose 18 consecutive times at that bet, but when you win it you will get 20 back so you are a winner. The question is , can you afford to lose 18 times, or even 8 times?

Yeah thats why if you're serious about sportsbetting you have a huge bankroll to make sure you cover the swings. the example u mentioned obviously its not smart to all your money on a 1/10 shot even getting 20x your money, but in the long run that is obviously a favorable take and u will profit in that situation over a large sample.....

thats what i mean, like if ur a serious sportsbettor u seek out those types of situations kind of like looking for diamond in the rough....
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adarqui

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Re: Does anyone bet on basketball here?
« Reply #6 on: March 08, 2017, 02:49:50 am »
+1
there's always that weird side to it too, the "big data crunching" that some people use or "dark methods":

- What if a star player performs worse with a certain high relative humidity?
- You have inside info that he just found out his GF is cheating on him?
- You know someone who has hacked RWB's private facebook/email and he tips you off to some potential red flags, or you correlate his statlines to how often (and when) he posts on FB
- Data showing GSW performs like crap the first game of the season if it's a Monday, 90% of the time

i'm just throwing out some nonsense .. but stuff like that can allow you to need less luck.. at that point though, you're a professional big data gambler - and you're probably rich as FU*K, lol.

:trollface:

fast does lie

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Re: Does anyone bet on basketball here?
« Reply #7 on: March 08, 2017, 06:59:10 am »
+1
there's always that weird side to it too, the "big data crunching" that some people use or "dark methods":

- What if a star player performs worse with a certain high relative humidity?
- You have inside info that he just found out his GF is cheating on him?
- You know someone who has hacked RWB's private facebook/email and he tips you off to some potential red flags, or you correlate his statlines to how often (and when) he posts on FB
- Data showing GSW performs like crap the first game of the season if it's a Monday, 90% of the time

i'm just throwing out some nonsense .. but stuff like that can allow you to need less luck.. at that point though, you're a professional big data gambler - and you're probably rich as FU*K, lol.

:trollface:

lol I wish I had the tools to create an algorithim.... maybe we should work together to build one that is better than haralabos voulgaris... the dude's not even a bball player and he built and a complicated algorithm that is world class today in BBALL.....

imagine what streetballin aficianados like us can do......  :trollface:
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adarqui

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Re: Does anyone bet on basketball here?
« Reply #8 on: March 08, 2017, 02:36:35 pm »
0
there's always that weird side to it too, the "big data crunching" that some people use or "dark methods":

- What if a star player performs worse with a certain high relative humidity?
- You have inside info that he just found out his GF is cheating on him?
- You know someone who has hacked RWB's private facebook/email and he tips you off to some potential red flags, or you correlate his statlines to how often (and when) he posts on FB
- Data showing GSW performs like crap the first game of the season if it's a Monday, 90% of the time

i'm just throwing out some nonsense .. but stuff like that can allow you to need less luck.. at that point though, you're a professional big data gambler - and you're probably rich as FU*K, lol.

:trollface:

lol I wish I had the tools to create an algorithim.... maybe we should work together to build one that is better than haralabos voulgaris... the dude's not even a bball player and he built and a complicated algorithm that is world class today in BBALL.....

hah cool, never heard of him. going to check out a few stories:

http://www.espn.com/blog/playbook/dollars/post/_/id/2935/meet-the-worlds-top-nba-gambler

nice thanks!


Quote
imagine what streetballin aficianados like us can do......  :trollface:

hah ya..

pc

fast does lie

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Re: Does anyone bet on basketball here?
« Reply #9 on: March 08, 2017, 07:05:59 pm »
+1
yeah basically he's supposedly spent millions with data people to build an algorithim in bball that can beat the bookies, always adjusting and tweaking it..... the thing is, im sure he hasn't thought of everything.... he's a fuckin gambler.... not even a baller....

like has he taken into account how players with more explosiveness will endure better at crunch time then say the the flamingo legged all star? shit like that.....

for example curry lacks explosiveness aka lower body strength and it showed in the finals last year..... he was not able to penetrate the lane cause he's not explosive.....

obviously he factors in the easy stuff like performance on x days rest, past performance at x venues, record, set plays, injuries, etc etc..... patterns, etc.....

edit- the bookies aka vegas and offshore books are obv are also competing to build a better formula.... the variance is huge.... but there's a lot of deadmoney cause nba has expanded so much with casual bettors getting into it and the explosion of draftkings, fanduel etc
« Last Edit: March 08, 2017, 07:09:31 pm by fast does lie »
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Mutumbo000

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Re: Does anyone bet on basketball here?
« Reply #10 on: March 08, 2017, 10:33:49 pm »
+1
Nope. I used to spend a bit of time trying it (not on NBA but on other leagues) and found the odds for favourites were always minimal. You get the occasional upset and you've negated all your past wins. I ended up betting on the line using the favourites by a margin of 1-10 as most basketball games tend to be close and you'd get a return of $2.20-$2.50 on the $1. I had varied success. In the end I just thought it was worth more time and trouble than it was worth so I don't bother with it anymore. The amount of people that can genuinely make money from sports betting is small (apart from the bookies).
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