Author Topic: coronavirus  (Read 10675 times)

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adarqui

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #465 on: March 29, 2020, 10:41:05 pm »
0
damn.. numbers could be higher if true.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/world/europe/Spain-coronavirus-nursing-homes.html

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#Coronavirus death tolls in Italy & France are much higher than reported. Italian authorities conceded that they did not include those who died at home or in nursing homes. In France, officials said only those who died in hospitals were recorded as

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In Italy, authorities have conceded that their coronavirus death toll did not include those who had died at home or in nursing homes. Similarly in France, officials have said that only those who died in hospitals had been recorded as pandemic-related — a practice they said would change in the coming days




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Among the deaths: a 42-year-old woman in Arkansas with no pre-existing health condition (and who had never been hospitalized before, according to her sister) who felt "a little sick" on March 15 and thought it to be a cold or a sinus infection. After developing shortness of breath and cough that wouldn't go away, she was admitted to the hospital on March 24 and tested positive to Covid-19. She was put on a ventilator in ICU and, after 4 days (on Saturday, March 28), she died.





w.h. taking a new tone, acting as if they should be congratulated if we keep it to 100k deaths. that's their new spin. but at least i's a sign they may be taking it serious.

fauci, getting through to that pile of garbage, makes him the leading 2020 person of the year candidate. :ninja:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/29/nation/fauci-predicts-millions-coronavirus-cases-us-more-than-100000-deaths/




https://twitter.com/eliowa/status/1244333267148509191

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/03/28/florida-coronavirus-cases-are-growing-fast-heres-what-that-means/

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For decades to come, Florida will be a case study in what not to do in a pandemic. The states inaction has harmed tourists across the globe and many many Florida citizens. A travesty beyond comprehension #covid19 #covid19florida

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New analysis of the outbreak in Florida, where experts say there is a “huge public health crisis” coming:

—cases double every 3 days
—acceleration mirrors NY
—only 40,000 tested
—no stay at home order



adarqui

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #466 on: March 30, 2020, 12:26:21 am »
+1
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Might be too obvious, but some may need a COVID-19 math reminder: 5-7 d incubation + 7-10 d from sx onset to worsening dyspnea, + prolonged ICU course. Many who are now critically ill or dying in US ICUs were infected > 1 month ago. #COVID19  https://thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext


adarqui

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #467 on: March 30, 2020, 12:24:15 pm »
0
birx: "if we do things almost perfectly," she still predicts up to 200,000 U.S. deaths.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/dr-deborah-birx-predicts-200-000-deaths-if-we-do-n1171876

at least the message is changing, towards realism.

crazy video though.. much different than what she says during those press conferences with trump in the room. that's a grim interview where she admits 1) we're late 2) we need national cohesive stay at home/strategy

adarqui

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #468 on: March 30, 2020, 12:25:39 pm »
0
former US Surgeon General: we need a national stay at home order

https://twitter.com/vivek_murthy/status/1244443465850728448

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We need a national stay at home order. Needed it weeks ago. It remains the most powerful tool we have at this moment to reduce the spread of #covid19. The reluctance to call for such a policy represents a critical failure of federal leadership that will cost lives. (1/x)
9:56 PM · Mar 29, 2020·Twitter Web App
1.7K
 Retweets
6.7K
 Likes
Vivek Murthy
@vivek_murthy
·
14h
Replying to
@vivek_murthy
Is it necessary for all states to have such an aggressive policy? Yes. Because we are still struggling to test, we have no idea what the real case count is but it’s likely many multiples higher than the recorded numbers and the virus is in far more places than we think. (2/x)
Vivek Murthy
@vivek_murthy
·
14h
The bottom line is this: when it comes to public health response SPEED = LIVES SAVED. We had a slow start in responding to #covid19 and we are trying to catch up. But we need to move faster. Every day matters. (3/x END)

adarqui

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #469 on: March 30, 2020, 12:28:49 pm »
0
holy fuck.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-sick-ship-approval-fort-lauderdale-20200329-pymhibz6bvduxbwfgk2mil23ku-story.html

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“We cannot afford to have people who are not even Floridians dumped into South Florida using up those valuable resources," DeSantis said, adding he is in touch with the White House over the fate of the Zaandam, as well as a companion ship, the Rotterdam, where some passengers were moved. “We view this as a big, big problem and we don’t want to see people dumped in southern Florida right now.”

adarqui

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #470 on: March 30, 2020, 02:02:39 pm »
0
holy fuck x 2.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-job-losses-could-total-47-million-unemployment-rate-of-32percent-fed-says.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar

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Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32%, Fed estimates

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The central part of Faria-e-Castro’s compilations comes from previous Fed research showing 66.8 million workers in “occupations with high risk of layoff.” They are sales, production, food preparation and services. Other research also identified 27.3 million people working in “high contact-intensive” jobs such as barbers and stylists, airline attendants, and food and beverage service.

adarqui

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #471 on: March 30, 2020, 09:56:31 pm »
+1
great quick read.

https://www.minnpost.com/health/2020/03/from-gates-to-osterholm-the-coronavirus-was-actually-expected/

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There is one area, though, where the world isn’t making much progress, and that’s pandemic preparedness. This should concern us all, because if history has taught us anything, it’s that there will be another deadly global pandemic.

We can’t predict when. But given the continual emergence of new pathogens, the increasing risk of a bioterror attack, and how connected our world is through air travel, there is a significant probability of a large and lethal, modern-day pandemic occurring in our lifetimes.

In the real world, though, the health infrastructure we have for normal times breaks down very rapidly during major infectious disease outbreaks. This is especially true in poor countries. But even in the U.S., our response to a pandemic or widespread bioterror attack would be insufficient.

-- Bill Gates

robo

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #472 on: March 30, 2020, 10:55:06 pm »
+1
great segment on pbs, esp this around the 3m mark (do we have enough vents): https://youtu.be/Gh5rTm0DghU?t=195

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gh5rTm0DghU" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gh5rTm0DghU</a>
« Last Edit: March 30, 2020, 11:44:17 pm by robo »

robo

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #473 on: March 30, 2020, 11:11:14 pm »
+1

adarqui

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #474 on: March 31, 2020, 12:48:49 am »
+1
^^ both. we are fucked.

Monday's major coronavirus updates:
- USA: +23,415 cases, +593 deaths
- Spain: +7,846 cases, +913 deaths
- Italy: +4,302 cases, +881 deaths
- France: +4,376 cases, +418 deaths
- Germany: +3,993 cases, +72 deaths
- Worldwide: +64,570 cases, +3,783 deaths

robo

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #475 on: March 31, 2020, 01:18:42 am »
+1

adarqui

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #476 on: March 31, 2020, 01:48:15 am »
0
props to those folks.. but smh. :/

vag

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #477 on: March 31, 2020, 02:35:49 am »
+1
either im going crazy or the usa is in big trouble..  :wowthatwasnutswtf:

https://studylib.net/coronavirus/coronavirus-growth-per-100k.html




https://studylib.net/coronavirus/coronavirus-us-growth-per-100k.html



Graphs are not exactly comparable, by means of total cases. Because every country now has different testing policies/abilities. IN NYC excesively testing is being done, that is why cases scyrocketed, in Europe that is not the case, yet.
For example, in Greece we are 35 days after patient 0 and we have only 1200 cases and 40 deaths, for 11 Million people. But the tests are limited, they only test those who are candidate for hospitalizing. The real cases according to various mathematics models are around 10K to 20K.
It doesn't matter what you are counting though. The absolute number does not matter. The deaths/hospitalizations/total ratios seem to be more or less the same around the world, as they say this virus is very democratic, it treats all countries, races, genes etc the exact same way!
What you should only care for, is the increase ratio. The slope of the cases curve is all that matters. And by that mean, the graphs are useful.
My rule of thumb from studying the numbers ( and boy, am i good in numbers ) is this :
-If you are not locked down, we don't even need to discuss, doomsday is ahead, literally, 50% will be infected and 1% of that will die, so about 0.5% of total population will die, that is 15 million deaths in US scale  :o.
-If increase ratio is 10% , you are good, in about 8 weeks you will have it under control.
-If it is between 10 and 25%, it is gonna be a hard fight.
-If it is 25% and over, you are fucked, your health care system will collapse fast and bad, will take 10 weeks of hard lockdown to bring it down to 10% and then another 6-8 to control the shit. Rough estimation of total deaths: about 200 per million of population, so for US scale, about 70K  :'(

US is somewhere between doomsday and collapse. Only hope is immediate lock-down and that the virus proves to be seasonal and/or the drugs being tested globally start working. Not the vaccine, that will take 12-18 months. But if we have a cure, then the health care doesn't collapse so it is a totally different talk and situation. We are close to that. Let's see.

Stay safe everyone, aka STAY HOME!

:lololol:
woot

adarqui

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #478 on: March 31, 2020, 03:18:50 am »
0
either im going crazy or the usa is in big trouble..  :wowthatwasnutswtf:

https://studylib.net/coronavirus/coronavirus-growth-per-100k.html




https://studylib.net/coronavirus/coronavirus-us-growth-per-100k.html



Graphs are not exactly comparable, by means of total cases. Because every country now has different testing policies/abilities. IN NYC excesively testing is being done, that is why cases scyrocketed, in Europe that is not the case, yet.
For example, in Greece we are 35 days after patient 0 and we have only 1200 cases and 40 deaths, for 11 Million people. But the tests are limited, they only test those who are candidate for hospitalizing. The real cases according to various mathematics models are around 10K to 20K.
It doesn't matter what you are counting though. The absolute number does not matter. The deaths/hospitalizations/total ratios seem to be more or less the same around the world, as they say this virus is very democratic, it treats all countries, races, genes etc the exact same way!
What you should only care for, is the increase ratio. The slope of the cases curve is all that matters. And by that mean, the graphs are useful.
My rule of thumb from studying the numbers ( and boy, am i good in numbers ) is this :
-If you are not locked down, we don't even need to discuss, doomsday is ahead, literally, 50% will be infected and 1% of that will die, so about 0.5% of total population will die, that is 15 million deaths in US scale  :o.
-If increase ratio is 10% , you are good, in about 8 weeks you will have it under control.
-If it is between 10 and 25%, it is gonna be a hard fight.
-If it is 25% and over, you are fucked, your health care system will collapse fast and bad, will take 10 weeks of hard lockdown to bring it down to 10% and then another 6-8 to control the shit. Rough estimation of total deaths: about 200 per million of population, so for US scale, about 70K  :'(

US is somewhere between doomsday and collapse. Only hope is immediate lock-down and that the virus proves to be seasonal and/or the drugs being tested globally start working. Not the vaccine, that will take 12-18 months. But if we have a cure, then the health care doesn't collapse so it is a totally different talk and situation. We are close to that. Let's see.

Stay safe everyone, aka STAY HOME!

:lololol:

solid breakdown vag. I wouldn't be surprised if we (US) hit that 100k by June. That 1% CFR going to turn into 5%+ CFR when resources/hospitals/health care system become overloaded.

like i said above: we are fucked :<

many major outbreak zones here. it will be all over, somewhat staggered. complete catastrophe.

sad to see our ignorant arrogance put us in position to have the worst outbreak in the world. we also "lead": so many nations who are going through it (and have been going through it), followed our example. not surprisingly, we are going to mount a major campaign to blame China. sure they deserve some serious blame, but they gave us (and the rest of the world) ample warning, months to prepare. and we (the US specifically), did absolutely nothing.

i have no optimistic outlook for what's about to happen in the US. very much hoping i'm being alarmist/over-reacting. but... not looking that way. the data doesn't lie.

:/

gn!

adarqui

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #479 on: March 31, 2020, 03:23:27 am »
0
oh yea and i'm personally staying the fuck home (same for robo). hopefully many others as well.

easier said than done for some folks, unfortunately. lucky that I can.. also that's my way of helping. i'm in no way brave enough to go help at a hospital etc.. or even help in any high risk situation. i'm just sitting on the sideline here. if I had enough plants growing to produce lots of food, i'd be donating it. that's about all i can think of right now. otherwise i'm just "helping" by staying home. feels weak, but also seems very smart.

fu*k man. major respect to all of the health care workers going in to work w/o the proper protective equipment.

this country is such a disappointment.

:<